Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
Ryan Tannehill had a horrible opening week against the Cardinals, but he put it to the Seahawks in week 2.
He has the 5th longest depth of completed passes on the 10th longest attempts, but due to 1 INT and 3 sack fumbles, his cumulative epa is low.
His TD passing depth is a bit longer than average.
Julio Jones is still a thing.
A.J. Brown is a deep threat for them.
Overall accuracy is below average, but not terrible.
Stafford has the 15th longest time to throw, but the 4th highest sack rate with 9 sacks.
His week 1 and week 2 were so different, that I’m not sure that combined data tells you a lot about what to expect, but here goes anyway.
Long throws combined with lower than expected yac equals basically average yards per attempt (19th). Lots of sacks drag the net yardage down (21st). He has decent first down conversions (15th), but a high turnover rate (5th) and a low TD rate (27th) are anchors on his efficiency (28th epa/d), even though the bulk of his passing plays adds positive value (13th psr).
Basically, when he doesn’t turn the ball over, he is dangerous, but his 2 weeks so far are not as good as his play over the last few seasons.
opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured
ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB dropbacks.
wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.), adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)
ttd: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws, scrambles or is sacked.
pr%: The % of dropbacks where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)
adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.
20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards
ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.
cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)
yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.
yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)
ypa: Yards per Attempt
aa%: The % of dropbacks that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.
ta%: Throw Aways as a percentage of dropbacks
scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of dropbacks
sk%: Sacks as a percentage of dropbacks
to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of dropbacks
ny/d: Net Yards per dropback. (Passing Yards – Sack Yards + Scramble Yards) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)
1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of dropbacks
td%: Touchdown as a percentage of dropbacks
rze: Expected Points Added per dropback in the red zone
orze: Expected Points Added per dropback outside of the red zone
20+e: Expected Points Added per dropback on passes >=20 air yards
psr: The % of dropbacks that have epa> 0
epa/d: Expected Points Added per dropback.